Aiman AbzhanovaThe mere mention of chocolate can evoke sweet and cozy feelings. Chocolate has a rich history dating back to the ancient Olmec and Mayan civilizations of Mesoamerica. Revered by these ancient cultures, chocolate was recognized as a religious offering, currency, and symbol of social status. Today, chocolate remains a sweet indulgence that is accessible, affordable, and enjoyed worldwide.
Chocolate is made from the fruit of cacao trees (Theobroma Cacao), which require specific growing conditions – including uniform temperatures, high humidity, abundant rain, and wind protection – which are found in the belt 20 degrees north and south of the equator. Initially bitter due to the presence of phytic acid, cocoa beans are fermented and then dried to enhance their flavor profile. Today, the majority of the world’s cocoa is cultivated in West Africa (~60%), predominantly in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Unlike coffee, cocoa beans require costly refrigeration to extend their shelf life. As a result, the chocolate supply chain is sensitive to fluctuations in cacao yields caused by changes in weather patterns.
Intense rain and heat, driven by El Niño – a climate phenomenon characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – have impacted cocoa yields and exacerbated the spread of pests and diseases. Erratic weather patterns cause moisture stress which leads to decreased flowering of cocoa trees. Heavy rain drives the outbreak of “Black pod disease,” a fungal pathogen that spreads through rainfall, splashing, and running water. Another disease that affects cocoa trees is “Swollen shoot virus,” which is spread by sap-sucking mealybugs and lowers the cocoa yield and can kill diseased trees. Because infected trees need to be cut down, these diseases can devastate harvests and impact future crop yields. Moreover, changes to climate are shrinking the areas where cocoa can be cultivated. The global cocoa market has been facing a deficit of cocoa for three consecutive years. It is projected that global cocoa supply could further decline by 10% in 2024. Consumers have already observed a 12-15% increase in the prices of chocolate products in the last year and this trend is expected to continue.
Chocolate is not the only crop sensitive to the impact of climate change. The key climate-sensitive crops that are vital sources of calories for billions of people are maize, wheat, rice, soy, potatoes, bananas, and plantains. Additionally, climate change will affect production of coffee and chili peppers. Climate change has a far-reaching impact on society and the economy. The cocoa bean shortage is another reminder that we need to act now to adapt to the changing environment.
Peer Editor: Jeanne-Marie McPherson